1 00:00:01,700 --> 00:00:22,550 [Music] 2 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:27,590 3 00:00:22,550 --> 00:00:31,850 do you want to 4 00:00:27,590 --> 00:00:34,370 it's a little early but 5 00:00:31,850 --> 00:00:43,610 guys well I found someone 6 00:00:34,370 --> 00:00:46,910 to give a talk that 7 00:00:43,610 --> 00:00:49,879 if you ever 8 00:00:46,910 --> 00:00:52,910 9 00:00:49,879 --> 00:00:56,750 out 10 00:00:52,910 --> 00:00:58,100 what does my economy 11 00:00:56,750 --> 00:01:00,950 12 00:00:58,100 --> 00:01:02,090 13 00:01:00,950 --> 00:01:05,149 asking some 14 00:01:02,090 --> 00:01:08,960 well you came to the right place 15 00:01:05,149 --> 00:01:10,970 part of her PhD thesis work 16 00:01:08,960 --> 00:01:15,260 tony is going to answer 17 00:01:10,970 --> 00:01:23,330 18 00:01:15,260 --> 00:01:26,090 give a warm round of applause 19 00:01:23,330 --> 00:01:29,780 20 00:01:26,090 --> 00:01:32,600 21 00:01:29,780 --> 00:01:34,700 22 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,890 some part of my thesis today 23 00:01:34,700 --> 00:01:38,600 now this is ongoing work so 24 00:01:36,890 --> 00:01:40,550 grateful for any kind of feedback that 25 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:43,040 you guys would have 26 00:01:40,550 --> 00:01:45,830 presenting this as kind of a first try 27 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:47,600 because when i looked at the topic of 28 00:01:45,830 --> 00:01:50,300 29 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:52,130 mean for an economy 30 00:01:50,300 --> 00:01:54,140 anything academic and 31 00:01:52,130 --> 00:01:57,680 surprised 32 00:01:54,140 --> 00:02:01,250 question to me because 33 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:03,440 mostly at 34 00:02:01,250 --> 00:02:05,150 read a lot of newspaper articles and 35 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,370 36 00:02:05,150 --> 00:02:09,080 37 00:02:07,370 --> 00:02:11,750 difficult and 38 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:15,020 holding itself back by having this big 39 00:02:11,750 --> 00:02:18,800 40 00:02:15,020 --> 00:02:21,380 what but no one really looked into how 41 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:24,170 it is holding itself back or if it is 42 00:02:21,380 --> 00:02:27,320 even holding itself back 43 00:02:24,170 --> 00:02:29,510 really 44 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,519 don't even have an agreement among 45 00:02:29,510 --> 00:02:34,400 economists or business studies people 46 00:02:31,519 --> 00:02:36,440 about what impact the 47 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,120 the economy 48 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,430 what does internet censorship due to an 49 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,440 economy 50 00:02:40,430 --> 00:02:44,840 ask what does the 51 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,670 economy and we don't even know that 52 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,230 was quite surprising to me and 53 00:02:46,670 --> 00:02:51,470 54 00:02:48,230 --> 00:02:53,330 a little bit later on but 55 00:02:51,470 --> 00:02:56,000 was thinking 56 00:02:53,330 --> 00:02:57,590 question to ask 57 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:00,410 internet censorship 58 00:02:57,590 --> 00:03:02,540 welfare 59 00:03:00,410 --> 00:03:06,019 so some of you might think of welfare 60 00:03:02,540 --> 00:03:08,300 61 00:03:06,019 --> 00:03:11,239 state gives to its 62 00:03:08,300 --> 00:03:14,480 63 00:03:11,239 --> 00:03:16,880 as the consumer and producer surplus 64 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,370 basically the difference between what 65 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,769 something costs and what you can sell it 66 00:03:19,370 --> 00:03:23,570 for 67 00:03:21,769 --> 00:03:25,940 difference between what you would be 68 00:03:23,570 --> 00:03:28,670 willing to pay and what you're actually 69 00:03:25,940 --> 00:03:29,700 paying is your consumer surplus 70 00:03:28,670 --> 00:03:32,640 let's assume 71 00:03:29,700 --> 00:03:34,170 I have a laptop and 72 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:36,000 would have been willing to pay 73 00:03:34,170 --> 00:03:37,739 74 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:40,379 think it's a very good product 75 00:03:37,739 --> 00:03:42,540 76 00:03:40,379 --> 00:03:45,090 actually got it for like 800 or 900 77 00:03:42,540 --> 00:03:46,800 78 00:03:45,090 --> 00:03:50,730 consumer surplus is something like 79 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:52,530 600-700 euros and if we add up 80 00:03:50,730 --> 00:03:58,890 everyone's individual consumer surplus 81 00:03:52,530 --> 00:04:01,650 82 00:03:58,890 --> 00:04:03,390 first 83 00:04:01,650 --> 00:04:05,640 does the 84 00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:08,700 and 85 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:11,010 good agreement on that 86 00:04:08,700 --> 00:04:14,340 measure that 87 00:04:11,010 --> 00:04:17,940 the 88 00:04:14,340 --> 00:04:19,950 89 00:04:17,940 --> 00:04:22,590 wasn't very clear in the research that 90 00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:25,530 91 00:04:22,590 --> 00:04:27,330 retail and possibly some other 92 00:04:25,530 --> 00:04:29,970 93 00:04:27,330 --> 00:04:32,100 possibly but not necessarily 94 00:04:29,970 --> 00:04:34,919 advertisement revenue is reflected in 95 00:04:32,100 --> 00:04:36,630 this 96 00:04:34,919 --> 00:04:38,669 big consulting agency that basically 97 00:04:36,630 --> 00:04:41,550 98 00:04:38,669 --> 00:04:44,160 very diligent about their methods 99 00:04:41,550 --> 00:04:47,430 basically 100 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:50,039 that the UK has a pretty big part of 101 00:04:47,430 --> 00:04:52,350 102 00:04:50,039 --> 00:04:54,210 probably mostly because of online retail 103 00:04:52,350 --> 00:04:56,610 which is bigger in the UK 104 00:04:54,210 --> 00:04:59,340 105 00:04:56,610 --> 00:05:01,410 that there is a small difference between 106 00:04:59,340 --> 00:05:03,539 developed and developing market averages 107 00:05:01,410 --> 00:05:06,330 108 00:05:03,539 --> 00:05:09,000 but this seems like a very 109 00:05:06,330 --> 00:05:10,800 110 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,300 all I don't know the 111 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:15,630 really say whether this is actually good 112 00:05:12,300 --> 00:05:17,880 113 00:05:15,630 --> 00:05:19,530 measure 114 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,419 because a lot of the stuff that the 115 00:05:19,530 --> 00:05:23,880 116 00:05:21,419 --> 00:05:24,870 117 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:28,470 at all 118 00:05:24,870 --> 00:05:30,510 one example is free online courses 119 00:05:28,470 --> 00:05:32,760 of 120 00:05:30,510 --> 00:05:34,770 the web 121 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:37,330 them are not add enabled 122 00:05:34,770 --> 00:05:42,400 them don't really have advertisements 123 00:05:37,330 --> 00:05:44,590 the general sense so classical economics 124 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:46,960 basically says well they don't 125 00:05:44,590 --> 00:05:48,729 create 126 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,800 taken one of these online courses and 127 00:05:48,729 --> 00:05:52,750 maybe you've been lucky and took a good 128 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,580 129 00:05:52,750 --> 00:05:55,930 some of the courses I took 130 00:05:54,580 --> 00:05:57,849 some value for me 131 00:05:55,930 --> 00:06:00,250 so one of the ways to look at this is 132 00:05:57,849 --> 00:06:02,530 actually to think about time as 133 00:06:00,250 --> 00:06:04,180 something that has 134 00:06:02,530 --> 00:06:06,639 so if 135 00:06:04,180 --> 00:06:08,590 online course 136 00:06:06,639 --> 00:06:10,990 example earning money 137 00:06:08,590 --> 00:06:16,120 spending it doing something literally 138 00:06:10,990 --> 00:06:18,610 that is fun for me and these guys 139 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,889 140 00:06:18,610 --> 00:06:26,050 how to pronounce it exactly 141 00:06:20,889 --> 00:06:31,930 he sounds Swedish possibly and 142 00:06:26,050 --> 00:06:33,909 they tried to get an idea of how much 143 00:06:31,930 --> 00:06:37,029 consumer surplus these online courses 144 00:06:33,909 --> 00:06:43,120 actually create 145 00:06:37,029 --> 00:06:46,000 reflected in the 146 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:49,659 some models 147 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:52,270 148 00:06:49,659 --> 00:06:56,740 if we take 149 00:06:52,270 --> 00:06:59,710 model which is 4.1 a billion dollars on 150 00:06:56,740 --> 00:07:01,750 average for the 151 00:06:59,710 --> 00:07:04,419 152 00:07:01,750 --> 00:07:07,180 of economic welfare that somehow being 153 00:07:04,419 --> 00:07:09,520 created that is not reflected in 154 00:07:07,180 --> 00:07:12,219 155 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:14,949 actually pay money for another example 156 00:07:12,219 --> 00:07:16,629 that we might think of 157 00:07:14,949 --> 00:07:18,370 wikipedia has a certain 158 00:07:16,629 --> 00:07:20,349 operating obviously the servers and 159 00:07:18,370 --> 00:07:22,000 stuff but because most people 160 00:07:20,349 --> 00:07:24,550 contributing to 161 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:27,099 volunteers 162 00:07:24,550 --> 00:07:30,370 not really reflect the true value 163 00:07:27,099 --> 00:07:31,870 164 00:07:30,370 --> 00:07:34,060 you don't want to say 165 00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:35,379 don't agree that money had 166 00:07:34,060 --> 00:07:37,060 opportunity 167 00:07:35,379 --> 00:07:39,729 what about the money that you don't 168 00:07:37,060 --> 00:07:42,310 spend on enpsychopedia 'he's 169 00:07:39,729 --> 00:07:45,909 you guys have 170 00:07:42,310 --> 00:07:47,409 171 00:07:45,909 --> 00:07:49,710 how many of you guys have recent 172 00:07:47,409 --> 00:07:51,870 173 00:07:49,710 --> 00:07:54,960 that's a little less 174 00:07:51,870 --> 00:07:56,760 more 175 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:59,550 my family also we also have an 176 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,860 177 00:07:59,550 --> 00:08:04,110 or something 178 00:08:01,860 --> 00:08:06,000 179 00:08:04,110 --> 00:08:07,800 an encyclopedia 180 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:10,050 and buy a new encyclopedia 181 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:12,540 knowledge changed obviously 182 00:08:10,050 --> 00:08:16,800 since probably 183 00:08:12,540 --> 00:08:18,810 bother 184 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:21,840 like a physical book might cost a 185 00:08:18,810 --> 00:08:24,150 hundred euros 186 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:27,480 187 00:08:24,150 --> 00:08:30,120 have had an encyclopedia at one point 188 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:33,179 189 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:35,280 at this point 190 00:08:33,179 --> 00:08:37,049 encyclopedia every year 191 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,270 buy it every 192 00:08:37,049 --> 00:08:43,230 so in order to simplify this we can say 193 00:08:39,270 --> 00:08:47,190 every year 194 00:08:43,230 --> 00:08:51,360 195 00:08:47,190 --> 00:08:54,990 times 196 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:56,400 million euros of economic welfare of 197 00:08:54,990 --> 00:08:58,170 something that people were willing to 198 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:00,120 spend money for that they're not 199 00:08:58,170 --> 00:09:01,470 spending money for 200 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,780 201 00:09:01,470 --> 00:09:06,090 202 00:09:03,780 --> 00:09:09,030 naturally useful for us anymore because 203 00:09:06,090 --> 00:09:10,830 the knowledge that we have the knowledge 204 00:09:09,030 --> 00:09:13,500 that they would have would be outdated 205 00:09:10,830 --> 00:09:19,560 very very soon and 206 00:09:13,500 --> 00:09:21,480 more 207 00:09:19,560 --> 00:09:24,540 208 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:27,420 business side 209 00:09:24,540 --> 00:09:28,980 there's a lot of research on whether the 210 00:09:27,420 --> 00:09:30,810 internet actually increases productivity 211 00:09:28,980 --> 00:09:32,730 for businesses or not 212 00:09:30,810 --> 00:09:34,500 well I don't really want to go into that 213 00:09:32,730 --> 00:09:37,020 debate because 214 00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:37,470 215 00:09:37,020 --> 00:09:39,510 on 216 00:09:37,470 --> 00:09:41,430 217 00:09:39,510 --> 00:09:43,080 did this wrong and 218 00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:43,860 your argument makes sense so it's very 219 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,390 you 220 00:09:43,860 --> 00:09:49,050 221 00:09:45,390 --> 00:09:50,580 really like 222 00:09:49,050 --> 00:09:52,710 one 223 00:09:50,580 --> 00:09:53,910 a lot of businesses to rely on the 224 00:09:52,710 --> 00:09:56,450 225 00:09:53,910 --> 00:10:00,200 now we can see on this graph 226 00:09:56,450 --> 00:10:03,950 227 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:06,530 about 228 00:10:03,950 --> 00:10:07,970 the email to communicate now 229 00:10:06,530 --> 00:10:10,010 obviously only works if you have 230 00:10:07,970 --> 00:10:11,750 internet 231 00:10:10,010 --> 00:10:16,640 access to internet in order for their 232 00:10:11,750 --> 00:10:20,120 current business model to work 233 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:22,130 was just some short ideas on sort of 234 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,780 what can 235 00:10:22,130 --> 00:10:25,940 economy and now 236 00:10:23,780 --> 00:10:29,480 237 00:10:25,940 --> 00:10:32,660 238 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:34,940 239 00:10:32,660 --> 00:10:37,220 about it and 240 00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:38,720 in what kind of effect this has 241 00:10:37,220 --> 00:10:44,420 sort of the obvious people don't have 242 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:46,520 access to 243 00:10:44,420 --> 00:10:48,170 244 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,970 the controller suppression of what can 245 00:10:48,170 --> 00:10:52,370 be accessed published 246 00:10:49,970 --> 00:10:54,500 internet and acted by regulators or on 247 00:10:52,370 --> 00:10:56,480 their own initiative 248 00:10:54,500 --> 00:10:57,440 conceptualize 249 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,420 personally 250 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:02,420 251 00:10:59,420 --> 00:11:04,790 important one is how 252 00:11:02,420 --> 00:11:10,670 internet censorship 253 00:11:04,790 --> 00:11:13,160 could in theory basically have internet 254 00:11:10,670 --> 00:11:15,710 censorship 255 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:17,390 256 00:11:15,710 --> 00:11:19,850 have censorship that isn't targeted at 257 00:11:17,390 --> 00:11:22,520 all 258 00:11:19,850 --> 00:11:25,100 close the internet down basically for a 259 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:28,130 day 260 00:11:25,100 --> 00:11:31,190 obviously the other one thing to look at 261 00:11:28,130 --> 00:11:33,620 is how widespread is it 262 00:11:31,190 --> 00:11:37,310 business or if 263 00:11:33,620 --> 00:11:39,650 probable is it that you would 264 00:11:37,310 --> 00:11:42,440 something 265 00:11:39,650 --> 00:11:44,360 266 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,610 that you would try to access something 267 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,050 that sensor 268 00:11:46,610 --> 00:11:51,290 even 269 00:11:48,050 --> 00:11:53,420 censorship and the way 270 00:11:51,290 --> 00:11:56,000 conceptualize it is to be kind of on a 271 00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:58,190 continuum 272 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,510 well either 273 00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:01,490 their censorship or there isn't 274 00:11:59,510 --> 00:12:04,520 censorship 275 00:12:01,490 --> 00:12:05,600 censorship cat has a big spectrum of 276 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,790 things that can 277 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:10,850 happen 278 00:12:07,790 --> 00:12:12,889 279 00:12:10,850 --> 00:12:14,060 sort of implications 280 00:12:12,889 --> 00:12:15,949 I don't want to go through them in 281 00:12:14,060 --> 00:12:17,810 detail 282 00:12:15,949 --> 00:12:21,230 really interesting talks on 283 00:12:17,810 --> 00:12:23,660 censorship already 284 00:12:21,230 --> 00:12:26,870 interesting or important for the model 285 00:12:23,660 --> 00:12:28,730 that I'm trying to build but before 286 00:12:26,870 --> 00:12:30,949 trying to build my model first some more 287 00:12:28,730 --> 00:12:33,259 motivation 288 00:12:30,949 --> 00:12:35,420 look at 289 00:12:33,259 --> 00:12:36,500 it would have an economic impact and 290 00:12:35,420 --> 00:12:40,279 there actually is a study that's 291 00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:42,380 conducted by a sort of lobbying 292 00:12:40,279 --> 00:12:44,660 organization so obviously should be 293 00:12:42,380 --> 00:12:48,079 294 00:12:44,660 --> 00:12:49,550 of salt 295 00:12:48,079 --> 00:12:54,199 it shows that there seems to be a 296 00:12:49,550 --> 00:12:57,709 correlation between freedom and how good 297 00:12:54,199 --> 00:13:01,100 the economic economic impact of 298 00:12:57,709 --> 00:13:03,829 is this is just a simple correlation you 299 00:13:01,100 --> 00:13:05,899 can see that 300 00:13:03,829 --> 00:13:09,949 going through it 301 00:13:05,899 --> 00:13:13,130 controlling for 302 00:13:09,949 --> 00:13:18,110 development level but it still seems 303 00:13:13,130 --> 00:13:20,600 quite rudimentary to be honest 304 00:13:18,110 --> 00:13:25,040 that they use is quite bad because it is 305 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:27,680 very very 306 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:30,740 enough 307 00:13:27,680 --> 00:13:34,220 someone says someone 308 00:13:30,740 --> 00:13:36,380 you think the economic 309 00:13:34,220 --> 00:13:38,750 310 00:13:36,380 --> 00:13:41,269 country 311 00:13:38,750 --> 00:13:44,600 they use to some degree 312 00:13:41,269 --> 00:13:49,519 very 313 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:52,819 final answer 314 00:13:49,519 --> 00:13:54,589 own model and in my model 315 00:13:52,819 --> 00:13:56,480 government that chooses the type of 316 00:13:54,589 --> 00:13:58,250 censorship 317 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:00,620 censorship that 318 00:13:58,250 --> 00:14:05,720 319 00:14:00,620 --> 00:14:07,790 very expensive 320 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:10,610 321 00:14:07,790 --> 00:14:12,110 calculate our actual manpower and 322 00:14:10,610 --> 00:14:14,540 323 00:14:12,110 --> 00:14:17,130 324 00:14:14,540 --> 00:14:20,490 this point there 325 00:14:17,130 --> 00:14:24,030 is there are firms and 326 00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:25,950 327 00:14:24,030 --> 00:14:28,380 but instead is a number that can 328 00:14:25,950 --> 00:14:34,350 fluctuate depending on the kind of 329 00:14:28,380 --> 00:14:36,840 country 330 00:14:34,350 --> 00:14:39,930 industries that 331 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:41,640 by their information intensity or what i 332 00:14:39,930 --> 00:14:43,980 like to call information intensity 333 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:46,230 334 00:14:43,980 --> 00:14:48,660 commodity and what 335 00:14:46,230 --> 00:14:51,240 or what 336 00:14:48,660 --> 00:14:53,640 kinds of industry is how important is 337 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,380 information as a commodity as opposed to 338 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:58,020 other kinds of commodities that are in 339 00:14:55,380 --> 00:15:00,180 that are important for this industry 340 00:14:58,020 --> 00:15:02,490 let's 341 00:15:00,180 --> 00:15:04,380 equals 342 00:15:02,490 --> 00:15:06,720 information is a commodity really isn't 343 00:15:04,380 --> 00:15:09,570 important especially 344 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,580 information transmitted information we 345 00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:13,950 can think of traditional agriculture 346 00:15:11,580 --> 00:15:15,840 347 00:15:13,950 --> 00:15:18,690 348 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:20,700 technology involved 349 00:15:18,690 --> 00:15:24,180 very traditional agriculture that we 350 00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:27,210 still might see happening in some parts 351 00:15:24,180 --> 00:15:29,640 of 352 00:15:27,210 --> 00:15:31,410 little information transmission involved 353 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,480 354 00:15:31,410 --> 00:15:36,300 that is involved is actually mostly 355 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,430 through 356 00:15:36,300 --> 00:15:40,740 case of 357 00:15:38,430 --> 00:15:42,540 close to zero and then if we look at 358 00:15:40,740 --> 00:15:44,760 information intensity of one 359 00:15:42,540 --> 00:15:46,560 360 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,630 information is the most important 361 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:51,810 commodity 362 00:15:48,630 --> 00:15:52,440 would 363 00:15:51,810 --> 00:15:55,410 sorry 364 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:58,170 like let's look at 365 00:15:55,410 --> 00:15:59,910 kinds of businesses like this 366 00:15:58,170 --> 00:16:01,890 between we have sort of industrial 367 00:15:59,910 --> 00:16:04,260 companies in the modern world 368 00:16:01,890 --> 00:16:06,960 closer to the 369 00:16:04,260 --> 00:16:10,710 might be 370 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:13,800 371 00:16:10,710 --> 00:16:16,050 traditional garment factories 372 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:19,020 have information needs they get 373 00:16:16,050 --> 00:16:21,939 374 00:16:19,020 --> 00:16:23,709 or from my email 375 00:16:21,939 --> 00:16:26,259 376 00:16:23,709 --> 00:16:29,349 weeks or months 377 00:16:26,259 --> 00:16:33,429 information requirement on the other 378 00:16:29,349 --> 00:16:37,209 side closer 379 00:16:33,429 --> 00:16:40,209 380 00:16:37,209 --> 00:16:41,470 381 00:16:40,209 --> 00:16:44,049 and being able to transmit this 382 00:16:41,470 --> 00:16:45,789 information is very important 383 00:16:44,049 --> 00:16:50,109 between we might look at traditional 384 00:16:45,789 --> 00:16:52,209 industrial companies like automobile 385 00:16:50,109 --> 00:16:55,299 manufacturing that might be somewhere in 386 00:16:52,209 --> 00:16:58,720 between 387 00:16:55,299 --> 00:17:00,279 388 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,859 389 00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:05,409 randomly distributed the information 390 00:17:02,859 --> 00:17:07,869 intensity of industries is also kind of 391 00:17:05,409 --> 00:17:10,779 randomly distributed 392 00:17:07,869 --> 00:17:13,029 random fashion 393 00:17:10,779 --> 00:17:14,319 the 394 00:17:13,029 --> 00:17:16,569 economies 395 00:17:14,319 --> 00:17:19,059 most of them the information intensity 396 00:17:16,569 --> 00:17:20,679 of one industry is kind of correlated 397 00:17:19,059 --> 00:17:22,869 with information intensities of other 398 00:17:20,679 --> 00:17:25,659 industries in this country like in 399 00:17:22,869 --> 00:17:27,638 400 00:17:25,659 --> 00:17:30,549 certain type of 401 00:17:27,638 --> 00:17:34,210 quite a lot of which is manufacturing 402 00:17:30,549 --> 00:17:37,360 403 00:17:34,210 --> 00:17:39,549 have more industries in this area but we 404 00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:41,529 have less traditional agriculture for 405 00:17:39,549 --> 00:17:43,809 example 406 00:17:41,529 --> 00:17:45,730 distribution wouldn't work 407 00:17:43,809 --> 00:17:48,429 the service level and the 408 00:17:45,730 --> 00:17:49,990 level are randomly distributed as kind 409 00:17:48,429 --> 00:17:51,669 of external variables 410 00:17:49,990 --> 00:17:54,490 obviously this is a simplification 411 00:17:51,669 --> 00:17:56,559 because 412 00:17:54,490 --> 00:17:57,399 beginning like 413 00:17:56,559 --> 00:17:59,590 start 414 00:17:57,399 --> 00:18:02,919 I don't know 415 00:17:59,590 --> 00:18:04,389 416 00:18:02,919 --> 00:18:06,940 417 00:18:04,389 --> 00:18:09,100 418 00:18:06,940 --> 00:18:10,450 order to get a better idea of what 419 00:18:09,100 --> 00:18:12,879 happens with different types of 420 00:18:10,450 --> 00:18:15,100 economies 421 00:18:12,879 --> 00:18:18,309 this game 422 00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:21,250 and having these random parameters 423 00:18:18,309 --> 00:18:23,590 424 00:18:21,250 --> 00:18:29,980 average there should be 425 00:18:23,590 --> 00:18:34,179 426 00:18:29,980 --> 00:18:34,880 is actually missing is the consumer as a 427 00:18:34,179 --> 00:18:37,400 428 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:39,710 429 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:42,290 in here 430 00:18:39,710 --> 00:18:44,330 that reflected 431 00:18:42,290 --> 00:18:50,540 interesting aspect of my 432 00:18:44,330 --> 00:18:54,650 presenting this 433 00:18:50,540 --> 00:18:57,440 look at what this would mean for firms 434 00:18:54,650 --> 00:18:59,390 in my model what kind of things would I 435 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,950 expect 436 00:18:59,390 --> 00:19:02,720 which is always the first step when 437 00:19:00,950 --> 00:19:05,330 trying to model something 438 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:08,180 first of all 439 00:19:05,330 --> 00:19:10,790 intensity of something greater than 440 00:19:08,180 --> 00:19:13,310 but smaller than 441 00:19:10,790 --> 00:19:14,690 information intensity being close to one 442 00:19:13,310 --> 00:19:17,000 is kind of a special case 443 00:19:14,690 --> 00:19:18,620 444 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,900 censorship increases the 445 00:19:18,620 --> 00:19:22,430 uncertainty of information and of course 446 00:19:20,900 --> 00:19:25,730 that is more important 447 00:19:22,430 --> 00:19:29,420 the more important information is for 448 00:19:25,730 --> 00:19:32,120 449 00:19:29,420 --> 00:19:34,010 for a traditional garment factory 450 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:38,120 451 00:19:34,010 --> 00:19:40,490 important than for a 452 00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:42,830 semiconductor 453 00:19:40,490 --> 00:19:46,160 receive new 454 00:19:42,830 --> 00:19:48,290 every month or something that's the 455 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,750 second thing is the more globalized the 456 00:19:48,290 --> 00:19:53,930 economy as a whole is the more costly 457 00:19:50,750 --> 00:19:59,630 458 00:19:53,930 --> 00:20:02,720 459 00:19:59,630 --> 00:20:04,190 firms is 460 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,320 the higher the cost 461 00:20:04,190 --> 00:20:09,050 now this assumes that the censorship or 462 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:12,110 the goal of censorship usually isn't 463 00:20:09,050 --> 00:20:15,980 464 00:20:12,110 --> 00:20:19,190 firms don't succeed 465 00:20:15,980 --> 00:20:22,010 very focused 466 00:20:19,190 --> 00:20:23,450 less which makes their 467 00:20:22,010 --> 00:20:25,490 associated 468 00:20:23,450 --> 00:20:27,290 now of course 469 00:20:25,490 --> 00:20:29,390 circumvent censorship and they can do 470 00:20:27,290 --> 00:20:32,390 that for sure 471 00:20:29,390 --> 00:20:35,360 that 472 00:20:32,390 --> 00:20:37,790 473 00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:40,430 expensive 474 00:20:37,790 --> 00:20:41,810 make sure that the VPN works expensive 475 00:20:40,430 --> 00:20:43,460 476 00:20:41,810 --> 00:20:45,260 change it because the 477 00:20:43,460 --> 00:20:47,690 decides 478 00:20:45,260 --> 00:20:50,420 shouldn't work anymore so it's 479 00:20:47,690 --> 00:20:56,810 480 00:20:50,420 --> 00:20:58,640 481 00:20:56,810 --> 00:21:01,940 intensity 482 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:03,710 increases the 483 00:21:01,940 --> 00:21:05,360 484 00:21:03,710 --> 00:21:06,260 censorship for 485 00:21:05,360 --> 00:21:09,230 that happening 486 00:21:06,260 --> 00:21:11,150 more recently 487 00:21:09,230 --> 00:21:13,190 be some firms that have a relative 488 00:21:11,150 --> 00:21:15,650 advantage especially domestic firms 489 00:21:13,190 --> 00:21:17,420 often have a relative advantage due to 490 00:21:15,650 --> 00:21:19,760 the censorship because 491 00:21:17,420 --> 00:21:21,710 492 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,080 with it 493 00:21:21,710 --> 00:21:26,030 circumvent actually 494 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:28,160 need to circumvent 495 00:21:26,030 --> 00:21:31,040 because they speak the language 496 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,690 on 497 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,970 498 00:21:32,690 --> 00:21:36,620 as well for the government 499 00:21:34,970 --> 00:21:39,350 I've talked I've said that censorship is 500 00:21:36,620 --> 00:21:41,240 costly 501 00:21:39,350 --> 00:21:43,190 502 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:46,610 manpower and 503 00:21:43,190 --> 00:21:49,970 actually is 504 00:21:46,610 --> 00:21:52,490 night and all it all in a research paper 505 00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:54,500 506 00:21:52,490 --> 00:21:57,020 they calculated through different types 507 00:21:54,500 --> 00:21:59,930 of censorship and how expensive it would 508 00:21:57,020 --> 00:22:01,640 be to scale them up so that is actually 509 00:21:59,930 --> 00:22:03,980 really interesting finding because 510 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:08,690 511 00:22:03,980 --> 00:22:10,400 of 512 00:22:08,690 --> 00:22:12,290 costly 513 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:17,180 censorship 514 00:22:12,290 --> 00:22:19,430 affecting in a negative way 515 00:22:17,180 --> 00:22:21,170 516 00:22:19,430 --> 00:22:23,450 result that we would really want because 517 00:22:21,170 --> 00:22:25,070 the incentives don't line up in that way 518 00:22:23,450 --> 00:22:27,950 and 519 00:22:25,070 --> 00:22:29,930 incentives obviously 520 00:22:27,950 --> 00:22:31,520 521 00:22:29,930 --> 00:22:33,380 through the internet the benefits that 522 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,750 523 00:22:33,380 --> 00:22:40,190 businesses often 524 00:22:35,750 --> 00:22:43,040 525 00:22:40,190 --> 00:22:45,410 still benefit from 526 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,240 527 00:22:45,410 --> 00:22:50,060 to do it and 528 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,560 most cases but developing countries that 529 00:22:50,060 --> 00:22:54,190 start out at low service and 530 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,929 531 00:22:54,190 --> 00:22:58,330 532 00:22:55,929 --> 00:23:01,269 533 00:22:58,330 --> 00:23:04,360 impact less of a negative impact and 534 00:23:01,269 --> 00:23:06,730 censorship can actually act as 535 00:23:04,360 --> 00:23:08,830 protectionism 536 00:23:06,730 --> 00:23:10,330 industries 537 00:23:08,830 --> 00:23:12,340 of censorship to push domestic 538 00:23:10,330 --> 00:23:14,559 industries and enable catch-up growth 539 00:23:12,340 --> 00:23:16,149 540 00:23:14,559 --> 00:23:17,950 541 00:23:16,149 --> 00:23:21,250 needs to be large enough so that these 542 00:23:17,950 --> 00:23:23,799 543 00:23:21,250 --> 00:23:26,710 the domestic market as well 544 00:23:23,799 --> 00:23:28,690 545 00:23:26,710 --> 00:23:31,059 546 00:23:28,690 --> 00:23:32,980 other way would be if you decided on a 547 00:23:31,059 --> 00:23:35,620 domestic internet and basically 548 00:23:32,980 --> 00:23:38,230 549 00:23:35,620 --> 00:23:40,179 which is kind of difficult 550 00:23:38,230 --> 00:23:42,159 551 00:23:40,179 --> 00:23:43,990 they still be positive for the 552 00:23:42,159 --> 00:23:47,710 553 00:23:43,990 --> 00:23:48,970 very in a very sort of something that 554 00:23:47,710 --> 00:23:51,940 should be taken with a grain of salt 555 00:23:48,970 --> 00:23:55,960 556 00:23:51,940 --> 00:23:57,429 557 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,950 really interested in China and this is 558 00:23:57,429 --> 00:24:01,659 kind of where 559 00:23:59,950 --> 00:24:03,549 and i'm really trying to find a 560 00:24:01,659 --> 00:24:05,919 framework where china isn't the 561 00:24:03,549 --> 00:24:08,379 exception but instead 562 00:24:05,919 --> 00:24:11,559 into the model 563 00:24:08,379 --> 00:24:13,539 Chinese government has outsourced much 564 00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,500 of 565 00:24:13,539 --> 00:24:17,019 companies 566 00:24:14,500 --> 00:24:21,129 baidu 567 00:24:17,019 --> 00:24:23,529 would not exist by now actually 568 00:24:21,129 --> 00:24:25,269 censorship didn't exist 569 00:24:23,529 --> 00:24:26,950 actually see now is that we 570 00:24:25,269 --> 00:24:29,080 example is going global 571 00:24:26,950 --> 00:24:31,899 it has more functionality than whatsapp 572 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:34,029 and they're trying to get out but 573 00:24:31,899 --> 00:24:35,889 574 00:24:34,029 --> 00:24:37,629 575 00:24:35,889 --> 00:24:39,789 censorship is starting to be a problem 576 00:24:37,629 --> 00:24:43,929 for these companies that used to benefit 577 00:24:39,789 --> 00:24:45,879 578 00:24:43,929 --> 00:24:49,059 how the character of 579 00:24:45,879 --> 00:24:53,740 580 00:24:49,059 --> 00:24:55,360 what about the future 581 00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:57,399 difficult to innovate with this kind of 582 00:24:55,360 --> 00:24:59,169 censorship and this kind of 583 00:24:57,399 --> 00:25:01,269 education that we see also makes 584 00:24:59,169 --> 00:25:03,610 innovation 585 00:25:01,269 --> 00:25:05,370 difficult in 586 00:25:03,610 --> 00:25:07,140 587 00:25:05,370 --> 00:25:09,960 588 00:25:07,140 --> 00:25:11,250 especially 589 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:14,010 590 00:25:11,250 --> 00:25:16,350 second we see more global 591 00:25:14,010 --> 00:25:18,630 592 00:25:16,350 --> 00:25:20,490 593 00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:22,530 594 00:25:20,490 --> 00:25:25,380 internet censorship 595 00:25:22,530 --> 00:25:29,520 of a disadvantage 596 00:25:25,380 --> 00:25:31,890 the supply chains actually become 597 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:34,140 information becomes the most important 598 00:25:31,890 --> 00:25:36,000 commodity all 599 00:25:34,140 --> 00:25:38,010 of course also makes 600 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,200 more costly for the economy 601 00:25:38,010 --> 00:25:42,720 what about 602 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,440 could work in the 603 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,330 604 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:47,429 605 00:25:45,330 --> 00:25:50,460 pretty attractive to most people most 606 00:25:47,429 --> 00:25:52,170 people don't try to go outside 607 00:25:50,460 --> 00:25:53,820 they don't even know that they can't 608 00:25:52,170 --> 00:25:55,470 they just don't want to do it 609 00:25:53,820 --> 00:25:57,030 second the 610 00:25:55,470 --> 00:25:59,700 machines communicate with each other 611 00:25:57,030 --> 00:26:01,590 612 00:25:59,700 --> 00:26:05,340 of the censorship that we see happening 613 00:26:01,590 --> 00:26:07,650 614 00:26:05,340 --> 00:26:09,990 affect 615 00:26:07,650 --> 00:26:12,330 and that wouldn't be a problem for what 616 00:26:09,990 --> 00:26:14,670 617 00:26:12,330 --> 00:26:18,840 sort of 618 00:26:14,670 --> 00:26:20,190 and 619 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,500 economy more focused on domestic 620 00:26:20,190 --> 00:26:24,179 consumption 621 00:26:22,500 --> 00:26:28,650 then censorship might actually be good 622 00:26:24,179 --> 00:26:30,420 for that now for me 623 00:26:28,650 --> 00:26:32,429 624 00:26:30,420 --> 00:26:34,050 625 00:26:32,429 --> 00:26:36,059 aren't suited for this kind of question 626 00:26:34,050 --> 00:26:38,010 because they tend to use 627 00:26:36,059 --> 00:26:40,290 told 628 00:26:38,010 --> 00:26:41,640 measure for that second 629 00:26:40,290 --> 00:26:43,830 step 630 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,990 agent-based modeling 631 00:26:43,830 --> 00:26:49,410 like to feed my 632 00:26:45,990 --> 00:26:52,170 reliable data and 633 00:26:49,410 --> 00:26:54,210 any of that 634 00:26:52,170 --> 00:26:55,890 back a couple of years 635 00:26:54,210 --> 00:26:59,340 636 00:26:55,890 --> 00:27:00,870 637 00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:02,280 that 638 00:27:00,870 --> 00:27:04,440 types of censorship which would be 639 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,910 really important for my kind for the 640 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:09,510 kind of research that I really want to 641 00:27:05,910 --> 00:27:11,640 carry out in the future 642 00:27:09,510 --> 00:27:13,710 if you have questions you can ask now or 643 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,510 you can come to me later you can of 644 00:27:13,710 --> 00:27:17,059 course also sent me an 645 00:27:15,510 --> 00:27:26,700 happy 646 00:27:17,059 --> 00:27:29,640 647 00:27:26,700 --> 00:27:32,190 648 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:34,140 have 649 00:27:32,190 --> 00:27:36,360 so if you have questions we have 650 00:27:34,140 --> 00:27:37,890 651 00:27:36,360 --> 00:27:41,010 the microphones we have 652 00:27:37,890 --> 00:27:43,470 number 653 00:27:41,010 --> 00:27:46,770 one thing 654 00:27:43,470 --> 00:27:49,560 655 00:27:46,770 --> 00:27:53,190 656 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:56,040 657 00:27:53,190 --> 00:27:59,550 question 658 00:27:56,040 --> 00:28:02,550 659 00:27:59,550 --> 00:28:05,040 660 00:28:02,550 --> 00:28:11,550 think this would increase 661 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:13,560 productivity 662 00:28:11,550 --> 00:28:15,030 and 663 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,010 haven't seen 664 00:28:15,030 --> 00:28:20,010 665 00:28:17,010 --> 00:28:22,020 about what 666 00:28:20,010 --> 00:28:23,550 such means for productivity and that's 667 00:28:22,020 --> 00:28:25,860 kind of both ways 668 00:28:23,550 --> 00:28:27,810 now one of the things to look at 669 00:28:25,860 --> 00:28:29,820 just because you 670 00:28:27,810 --> 00:28:32,340 doesn't mean you shut down any sort of 671 00:28:29,820 --> 00:28:34,770 social network 672 00:28:32,340 --> 00:28:36,630 you 673 00:28:34,770 --> 00:28:38,610 aren't able to use it anymore 674 00:28:36,630 --> 00:28:41,040 probably spend 675 00:28:38,610 --> 00:28:43,230 find new ways to access 676 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:49,560 would probably 677 00:28:43,230 --> 00:28:50,880 improve their productivity 678 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:55,770 question from microphone number 679 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:58,860 680 00:28:55,770 --> 00:29:01,050 where firms use information as an input 681 00:28:58,860 --> 00:29:02,760 to 682 00:29:01,050 --> 00:29:05,010 683 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:08,790 684 00:29:05,010 --> 00:29:10,710 685 00:29:08,790 --> 00:29:13,350 686 00:29:10,710 --> 00:29:18,300 687 00:29:13,350 --> 00:29:21,060 that information as a commodity is very 688 00:29:18,300 --> 00:29:23,580 difficult to be used in this new 689 00:29:21,060 --> 00:29:25,860 classical way because 690 00:29:23,580 --> 00:29:28,020 that everything is 691 00:29:25,860 --> 00:29:29,790 692 00:29:28,020 --> 00:29:31,200 693 00:29:29,790 --> 00:29:33,150 because you 694 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:36,510 basically 695 00:29:33,150 --> 00:29:38,290 and without any sort of censorship 696 00:29:36,510 --> 00:29:39,580 can talk about this a little bit later 697 00:29:38,290 --> 00:29:40,960 maybe you have some ideas that 698 00:29:39,580 --> 00:29:44,920 699 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:47,950 interesting and 700 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:52,210 well from microphone number 2 i'm so 701 00:29:47,950 --> 00:29:54,400 going the same direction for 702 00:29:52,210 --> 00:29:56,770 rather defined what is the optimization 703 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:59,560 problem for the government for your 704 00:29:56,770 --> 00:30:01,540 further approaches what would be the 705 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,300 optimization that 706 00:30:01,540 --> 00:30:06,430 707 00:30:04,300 --> 00:30:07,990 708 00:30:06,430 --> 00:30:10,210 the world but what is the government 709 00:30:07,990 --> 00:30:13,480 710 00:30:10,210 --> 00:30:15,640 economic welfare as defined as producer 711 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:19,150 and consumer surplus and 712 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:22,900 the government's goal is to optimize 713 00:30:19,150 --> 00:30:25,390 economic welfare for both producers 714 00:30:22,900 --> 00:30:28,420 consumers and also for itself as a 715 00:30:25,390 --> 00:30:30,910 producer and as a consumer 716 00:30:28,420 --> 00:30:33,910 717 00:30:30,910 --> 00:30:34,240 have a good proxy 718 00:30:33,910 --> 00:30:37,600 welfare 719 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:38,320 720 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,940 time 721 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,460 please give a warm round of applause to 722 00:30:39,940 --> 00:30:45,050 723 00:30:40,460 --> 00:31:12,140 [Applause] 724 00:30:45,050 --> 00:31:12,140 [Music]